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Nueva Chicago vs San Martin Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 17:30

Nueva Chicago

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Martin Tucuman

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.5%0-111.9%0-23.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.9%1-112.2%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.2%2-16.2%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.5%3-12.1%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 35.7% 2.80 +27.7%

Draw 31.0% 39.2% 2.55 -20.9%

Away win 23.4% 34.7% 2.88 -19.6%

Over 2.5 33.6% 30.3% 3.30 +10.9%

Over 3.5 15.3% 12.5% 8.00 +13.4%

BTTS 45.0% 41.7% 2.40 +8.0%

Home O1.5 32.6% 27.0% 3.70 +20.6%

Away O1.5 17.4% 26.7% 3.75 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.0%

H 46% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.5%

#2 1–0 19.9%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 0–1 11.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nueva Chicago1.0

San Martin Tucuman0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 15.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NUEVA CHICAGO · PPG 1.45

SAN MARTIN TUCUMAN · PPG 1.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 1.63 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nueva Chicago (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +27.7%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -20.9%

San Martin Tucuman (A) 23.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nueva Chicago face San Martin Tucuman in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nueva Chicago a 46% chance, the draw 31% and San Martin Tucuman 23%, so Nueva Chicago are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Nueva Chicago and 0.6 for San Martin Tucuman (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nueva Chicago are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.18 for San Martin Tucuman. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.6%.

Nueva Chicago vs San Martin Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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