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Colegiales vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:00

Colegiales

PPG 2.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+15.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-17.0%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.1%1-111.6%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.5%3-15.3%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 40.0% 2.50 +29.5%

Draw 24.5% 36.4% 2.75 -19.6%

Away win 23.6% 33.3% 3.00 -17.5%

Over 2.5 53.4% 37.7% 2.65 +41.5%

Over 3.5 32.2% 18.2% 5.50 +77.1%

BTTS 55.2% 47.6% 2.10 +15.9%

Home O1.5 49.4% 33.9% 2.95 +45.7%

Away O1.5 28.2% 29.9% 3.35 -3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.2%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colegiales1.7

Gimnasia Jujuy1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

COLEGIALES · PPG 2.10

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colegiales (H) 51.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +29.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -19.6%

Gimnasia Jujuy (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colegiales face Gimnasia Jujuy in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colegiales a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Gimnasia Jujuy 24%, so Colegiales are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Colegiales and 1.0 for Gimnasia Jujuy (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colegiales are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.20 for Gimnasia Jujuy. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +77.1%.

Colegiales vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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