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Agropecuario vs San Martin S.J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:00

Agropecuario

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Martin S.J.

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-112.8%0-25.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.2%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.0%2-17.0%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.8%3-12.5%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% 40.8% 2.45 -0.8%

Draw 31.9% 36.4% 2.75 -12.3%

Away win 27.6% 33.3% 3.00 -10.3%

Over 2.5 39.3% 37.0% 2.70 +6.1%

Over 3.5 19.7% 16.7% 6.00 +10.9%

BTTS 48.5% 47.6% 2.10 +1.8%

Home O1.5 35.0% 33.9% 2.95 +3.3%

Away O1.5 24.7% 28.6% 3.50 -8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Agropecuario1.0

San Martin S.J.0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 1.30

SAN MARTIN S.J. · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 1.93 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Agropecuario (H) 40.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -0.8%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.3%

San Martin S.J. (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Agropecuario face San Martin S.J. in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Agropecuario a 41% chance, the draw 32% and San Martin S.J. 28%, so Agropecuario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Agropecuario and 0.9 for San Martin S.J. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Agropecuario are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.10 for San Martin S.J.. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.2%.

Agropecuario vs San Martin S.J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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