Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / Defensores De Belgrano vs CA Estudiantes

Defensores De Belgrano vs CA Estudiantes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:00

Defensores De Belgrano

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

CA Estudiantes

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.5%0-115.0%0-24.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.4%1-111.9%1-23.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.7%2-14.7%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.0%3-11.2%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 39.2% 2.55 -4.4%

Draw 33.8% 38.5% 2.60 -12.1%

Away win 28.8% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Over 2.5 33.1% 31.3% 3.20 +5.9%

Over 3.5 13.1% 12.5% 8.00 +2.9%

BTTS 44.5% 43.5% 2.30 +2.4%

Home O1.5 32.6% 30.3% 3.30 +7.6%

Away O1.5 17.4% 25.6% 3.90 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.5%

D 34% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.5%

#2 1–0 19.4%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 0–1 15.0%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores De Belgrano0.8

CA Estudiantes0.6

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.1% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.20

CA ESTUDIANTES · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 1.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Defensores De Belgrano (H) 37.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -4.4%

Draw 33.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -12.1%

CA Estudiantes (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores De Belgrano face CA Estudiantes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores De Belgrano a 38% chance, the draw 34% and CA Estudiantes 29%, so Defensores De Belgrano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Defensores De Belgrano and 0.6 for CA Estudiantes (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores De Belgrano are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.36 for CA Estudiantes. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +7.6%.

Defensores De Belgrano vs CA Estudiantes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions