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Patronato vs Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:30

Patronato

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Quilmes

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.9%0-113.3%0-24.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.0%1-112.1%1-23.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.1%2-15.5%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.8%3-11.7%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% — — —

Draw 31.9% — — —

Away win 23.3% — — —

Over 2.5 33.6% — — —

Over 3.5 13.1% — — —

BTTS 44.5% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.5%

H 45% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.9%

#2 1–0 20.0%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 0–1 13.3%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Patronato0.9

Quilmes0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PATRONATO · PPG 1.30

QUILMES · PPG 0.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 1.52 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Patronato (H) 44.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Quilmes (A) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Patronato face Quilmes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patronato a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Quilmes 23%, so Patronato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Patronato and 0.6 for Quilmes (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patronato are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.55 for Quilmes.

Patronato vs Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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