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Ferro Carril Oeste vs Godoy Cruz Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:00

Ferro Carril Oeste

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Godoy Cruz

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-18.5%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.8%1-111.6%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-17.9%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.8%3-13.6%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 51.3% 1.95 +2.4%

Draw 26.2% 35.7% 2.80 -16.0%

Away win 21.3% 21.7% 4.60 -1.2%

Over 2.5 43.2% 34.7% 2.88 +24.4%

Over 3.5 22.7% 16.7% 6.00 +21.7%

BTTS 45.4% 41.7% 2.40 +9.0%

Home O1.5 38.3% 40.0% 2.50 -4.3%

Away O1.5 17.4% 18.2% 5.50 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.4%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.8%

#2 0–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.8%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferro Carril Oeste1.4

Godoy Cruz0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FERRO CARRIL OESTE · PPG 1.90

GODOY CRUZ · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ferro Carril Oeste (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +2.4%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -16.0%

Godoy Cruz (A) 21.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferro Carril Oeste face Godoy Cruz in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferro Carril Oeste a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Godoy Cruz 21%, so Ferro Carril Oeste are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ferro Carril Oeste and 0.6 for Godoy Cruz (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferro Carril Oeste are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.60 for Godoy Cruz. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.4%.

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Godoy Cruz Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions