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Acassuso vs Colon Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:00

Acassuso

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Colon Santa Fe

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-114.1%0-26.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.1%1-113.5%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.8%2-16.5%2-23.1%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 25.0% 4.00 +52.0%

Draw 32.1% 34.7% 2.88 -7.5%

Away win 29.9% 50.0% 2.00 -24.1%

Over 2.5 37.3% 38.5% 2.60 -3.0%

Over 3.5 20.1% 18.2% 5.50 +6.3%

BTTS 48.7% 46.5% 2.15 +4.7%

Home O1.5 32.6% 23.8% 4.20 +36.9%

Away O1.5 27.9% 40.8% 2.45 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 0–1 14.1%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Acassuso1.0

Colon Santa Fe1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ACASSUSO · PPG 1.44

COLON SANTA FE · PPG 1.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.00, combined xG 1.92 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Acassuso (H) 38.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +52.0%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -7.5%

Colon Santa Fe (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Acassuso face Colon Santa Fe in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Acassuso a 38% chance, the draw 32% and Colon Santa Fe 30%, so Acassuso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Acassuso and 1.0 for Colon Santa Fe (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Acassuso are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.18 for Colon Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +37.7%.

Acassuso vs Colon Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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