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Almagro vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:00

Almagro

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Midland

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-112.3%0-24.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.7%1-113.2%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.9%2-17.0%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.2%3-12.5%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 30.9% — — —

Away win 23.7% — — —

Over 2.5 37.3% — — —

Over 3.5 18.6% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.4%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.6%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.7%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almagro1.1

Midland0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMAGRO · PPG 1.90

MIDLAND · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 1.86 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Almagro (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Midland (A) 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Almagro face Midland in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almagro a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Midland 24%, so Almagro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Almagro and 0.8 for Midland (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almagro are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.00 for Midland.

Almagro vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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