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Recanatese vs Sora Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Recanatese

PPG 0.93 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sora

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.2%0-25.1%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.9%1-111.2%1-28.0%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.8%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.3%3-14.6%3-23.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 34.5% — — —

Over 2.5 57.3% — — —

Over 3.5 34.9% — — —

BTTS 60.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.0%

H 41% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 7.9%

#5 0–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Recanatese1.6

Sora1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RECANATESE · PPG 0.93

SORA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Recanatese (H) 41.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sora (A) 34.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Recanatese face Sora in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recanatese a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Sora 35%, so Recanatese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Recanatese and 1.4 for Sora (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recanatese are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.00 for Sora. This match finished 2-0.

Recanatese vs Sora Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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