Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone F / Ostia Mare vs LAquila

Ostia Mare vs LAquila Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Ostia Mare

PPG 2.27 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

LAquila

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.27), Away AVERAGE (1.13) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-12.1%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.9%1-15.9%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.4%2-18.2%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.5%3-17.6%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.6%4+-110.3%4+-23.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 81.2% — — —

Draw 12.4% — — —

Away win 6.3% — — —

Over 2.5 66.8% — — —

Over 3.5 45.0% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.4%

H 81% / xG 2.8-0.7 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 3–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 2–1✓ 8.2%

#5 4–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ostia Mare2.8

LAquila0.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTIA MARE · PPG 2.27

LAQUILA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.27), Away AVERAGE (1.13) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ostia Mare (H) 81.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 12.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

LAquila (A) 6.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ostia Mare face LAquila in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ostia Mare a 81% chance, the draw 12% and LAquila 6%, so Ostia Mare are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Ostia Mare and 0.7 for LAquila (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ostia Mare are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.13 for LAquila. This match finished 2-1.

Ostia Mare vs LAquila Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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