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First Vienna vs Sturm Graz II Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:30

First Vienna

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sturm Graz II

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-18.2%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.5%1-112.3%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.2%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.0%3-14.6%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 59.5% 1.68 -16.5%

Draw 26.3% 26.7% 3.75 -0.8%

Away win 23.9% 23.1% 4.33 +2.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 59.9% 1.67 -15.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 38.2% 2.62 -14.6%

BTTS 52.6% 62.5% 1.60 -15.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 60.6% 1.65 -25.1%

Away O1.5 24.6% 33.3% 3.00 -15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 0–0 9.1%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

First Vienna1.5

Sturm Graz II0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FIRST VIENNA · PPG 1.45

STURM GRAZ II · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

First Vienna (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -16.5%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -0.8%

Sturm Graz II (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

First Vienna face Sturm Graz II in Austria - 2. Liga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives First Vienna a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Sturm Graz II 24%, so First Vienna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for First Vienna and 0.9 for Sturm Graz II (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, First Vienna are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.22 for Sturm Graz II. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.8%.

First Vienna vs Sturm Graz II Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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