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SV Kapfenberg vs FC Liefering Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 1 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 16:30

SV Kapfenberg

PPG 1.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Liefering

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-18.1%0-26.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.4%1-111.4%1-28.8%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.0%2-26.2%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.4%3-13.7%3-22.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 25.3% 3.95 +50.1%

Draw 25.4% 26.0% 3.85 -1.3%

Away win 36.7% 57.8% 1.73 -36.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 65.4% 1.53 -6.4%

Over 3.5 37.3% 42.6% 2.35 -12.3%

BTTS 62.0% 66.7% 1.50 -7.0%

Home O1.5 44.2% 38.5% 2.60 +14.9%

Away O1.5 48.0% 62.5% 1.60 -23.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.0%

A 37% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SV Kapfenberg1.4

FC Liefering1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SV KAPFENBERG · PPG 1.36

FC LIEFERING · PPG 1.36

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SV Kapfenberg (H) 38.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +50.1%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -1.3%

FC Liefering (A) 36.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

SV Kapfenberg face FC Liefering in Austria - 2. Liga on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SV Kapfenberg a 38% chance, the draw 25% and FC Liefering 37%, so SV Kapfenberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for SV Kapfenberg and 1.5 for FC Liefering (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SV Kapfenberg are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.36 for FC Liefering. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.8%.

SV Kapfenberg vs FC Liefering Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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