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Castelfidardo vs V. Senigallia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Castelfidardo

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

V. Senigallia

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.13) vs Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-112.8%0-29.8%0-35.0%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.9%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.8%2-15.8%2-24.4%2-32.3%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.2%3-11.8%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% — — —

Draw 25.7% — — —

Away win 50.8% — — —

Over 2.5 45.2% — — —

Over 3.5 23.9% — — —

BTTS 48.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.1%

A 51% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 12.8%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 0–2 9.8%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Castelfidardo0.9

V. Senigallia1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CASTELFIDARDO · PPG 1.13

V. SENIGALLIA · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.13) vs Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Castelfidardo (H) 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

V. Senigallia (A) 50.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Castelfidardo face V. Senigallia in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Castelfidardo a 23% chance, the draw 26% and V. Senigallia 51%, so V. Senigallia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Castelfidardo and 1.5 for V. Senigallia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Castelfidardo are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.47 for V. Senigallia. This match finished 1-3.

Castelfidardo vs V. Senigallia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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