Castelfidardo vs V. Senigallia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Italy - Serie D - Girone F Group F - 32 Nuovo Stadio Comunale G.Mancini· Castelfidardo Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Castelfidardo PPG 1.13

1-3 MISS

V. Senigallia PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Castelfidardo face V. Senigallia in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Castelfidardo a 23% chance, the draw 26% and V. Senigallia 51%, so V. Senigallia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Castelfidardo and 1.5 for V. Senigallia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Castelfidardo are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.47 for V. Senigallia. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 23.4%

Odds: — EV: —

Draw 25.7%

Odds: — EV: —

Away 50.8%

Odds: — EV: —

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 45.2% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 23.9% Odds: — —

BTTS 48.1% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Castelfidardo

0.95

V. Senigallia

1.53

Model SuggestionAway  MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.13) vs Away AVERAGE (1.47)