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Gnistan vs KuPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:00

Gnistan

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

KuPS

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.5%0-25.4%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.0%1-111.4%1-28.1%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.7%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.1%3-14.4%3-23.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 32.8% 3.05 +23.2%

Draw 24.9% 28.2% 3.55 -7.0%

Away win 34.7% 48.5% 2.06 -28.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 60.6% 1.65 +1.0%

Over 3.5 37.3% 38.5% 2.60 -3.0%

BTTS 61.7% 65.4% 1.53 -5.6%

Home O1.5 45.4% 41.7% 2.40 +9.0%

Away O1.5 43.7% 54.1% 1.85 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 25.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.7%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gnistan1.5

KuPS1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GNISTAN · PPG 2.00

KUPS · PPG 1.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gnistan (H) 40.4%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +23.2%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.0%

KuPS (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gnistan face KuPS in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gnistan a 40% chance, the draw 25% and KuPS 35%, so Gnistan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gnistan and 1.4 for KuPS (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gnistan are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.88 for KuPS. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.3%.

Gnistan vs KuPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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