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Turku PS vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 12:00

Turku PS

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mariehamn

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-12.8%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.7%1-16.7%1-21.6%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.2%2-17.9%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.7%3-16.2%3-21.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-013.1%4+-16.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.8% 65.8% 1.52 +9.1%

Draw 18.6% 24.4% 4.10 -14.2%

Away win 9.6% 18.5% 5.40 -28.9%

Over 2.5 61.2% 61.7% 1.62 -0.9%

Over 3.5 37.4% 38.5% 2.60 -2.8%

BTTS 48.7% 59.9% 1.67 -18.7%

Home O1.5 60.1% 64.5% 1.55 -6.9%

Away O1.5 17.4% 28.6% 3.50 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 25.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.7%

H 72% / xG 2.4-0.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.2%

#2 3–0 12.7%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Turku PS2.4

Mariehamn0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TURKU PS · PPG 2.11

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.12

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.87 for Home, form 2.11 vs 0.12 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Turku PS (H) 71.8%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV +9.1%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -14.2%

Mariehamn (A) 9.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Turku PS face Mariehamn in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Turku PS a 72% chance, the draw 19% and Mariehamn 10%, so Turku PS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Turku PS and 0.5 for Mariehamn (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Turku PS are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.12 for Mariehamn.

Turku PS vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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