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Lahti vs FF Jaro Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 15:00

Lahti

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

FF Jaro

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-13.4%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.2%1-17.7%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.9%2-18.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-16.5%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.7%4+-16.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 61.0% 1.64 +4.6%

Draw 20.9% 26.3% 3.80 -12.3%

Away win 15.3% 22.0% 4.55 -18.2%

Over 2.5 61.2% 60.6% 1.65 +1.0%

Over 3.5 36.0% 38.5% 2.60 -6.4%

BTTS 48.8% 61.7% 1.62 -20.9%

Home O1.5 60.1% 61.7% 1.62 -2.6%

Away O1.5 17.4% 32.3% 3.10 -27.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 25.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.8%

H 64% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.9%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 3–0 11.2%

#4 1–1 7.7%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lahti2.3

FF Jaro0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LAHTI · PPG 1.67

FF JARO · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.67 for Home, form 1.67 vs 0.25 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lahti (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +4.6%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.3%

FF Jaro (A) 15.3%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lahti face FF Jaro in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lahti a 64% chance, the draw 21% and FF Jaro 15%, so Lahti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Lahti and 0.6 for FF Jaro (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lahti are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.25 for FF Jaro. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.0%.

Lahti vs FF Jaro Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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