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OLS vs KPV-j Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 15:00

OLS

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

KPV-j

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.3%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.7%1-14.3%1-21.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.4%2-17.1%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.4%3-17.8%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-019.8%4+-114.9%4+-25.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% 83.3% 1.20 -12.0%

Draw 17.3% 16.7% 6.00 +2.3%

Away win 9.5% 10.5% 9.50 -5.9%

Over 2.5 67.0% 82.0% 1.22 -18.3%

Over 3.5 49.6% 63.7% 1.57 -22.1%

BTTS 55.4% 69.4% 1.44 -20.2%

Home O1.5 77.3% 85.5% 1.17 -9.6%

Away O1.5 20.1% 30.8% 3.25 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -29.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.4%

H 73% / xG 3.3-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.4%

#2 2–0 9.4%

#3 4–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 2–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OLS3.3

KPV-j0.8

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OLS · PPG 1.86

KPV-J · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.55 for Home, form 1.86 vs 0.71 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

OLS (H) 73.3%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -12.0%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +2.3%

KPV-j (A) 9.5%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

OLS face KPV-j in Finland - Ykkonen on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OLS a 73% chance, the draw 17% and KPV-j 10%, so OLS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for OLS and 0.8 for KPV-j (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OLS are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.71 for KPV-j.

OLS vs KPV-j Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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