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Järfälla vs Stockholm Internazionale Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

Järfälla

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stockholm Internazionale

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-18.7%0-29.8%0-37.4%0-4+7.2%1 1-03.8%1-18.6%1-29.8%1-37.4%1-4+7.2%2 2-01.9%2-14.3%2-24.9%2-33.7%2-4+3.6%3 3-00.6%3-11.4%3-21.6%3-31.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 25.6% 3.90 -6.4%

Draw 21.7% 26.3% 3.80 -10.5%

Away win 55.4% 57.8% 1.73 -4.2%

Over 2.5 64.0% 65.4% 1.53 -2.1%

Over 3.5 41.5% 42.6% 2.35 -2.5%

BTTS 62.1% 66.7% 1.50 -6.9%

Home O1.5 32.6% 39.2% 2.55 -16.9%

Away O1.5 67.8% 63.7% 1.57 +6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob62.1%

A 55% / xG 1.0-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 0–2 9.8%

#3 1–2 9.8%

#4 0–3 7.4%

#5 1–3 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Järfälla1.0

Stockholm Internazionale2.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JÄRFÄLLA · PPG 1.00

STOCKHOLM INTERNAZIONALE · PPG 1.83

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.27 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Järfälla (H) 22.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -6.4%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.5%

Stockholm Internazionale (A) 55.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Järfälla face Stockholm Internazionale in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Järfälla a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Stockholm Internazionale 55%, so Stockholm Internazionale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Järfälla and 2.3 for Stockholm Internazionale (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Järfälla are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.83 for Stockholm Internazionale. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +6.5%.

Järfälla vs Stockholm Internazionale Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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