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FBK Karlstad vs Assyriska FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

FBK Karlstad

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Assyriska FF

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.1%0-24.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.9%1-111.4%1-27.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.2%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.8%3-14.9%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 44.4% 2.25 -0.1%

Draw 23.9% 27.4% 3.65 -7.7%

Away win 31.7% 37.7% 2.65 -16.0%

Over 2.5 61.2% 65.4% 1.53 -6.4%

Over 3.5 37.3% 42.6% 2.35 -12.3%

BTTS 61.3% 69.4% 1.44 -11.7%

Home O1.5 49.4% 54.6% 1.83 -9.6%

Away O1.5 37.1% 50.0% 2.00 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBK Karlstad1.6

Assyriska FF1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FBK KARLSTAD · PPG 1.57

ASSYRISKA FF · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FBK Karlstad (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -0.1%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.7%

Assyriska FF (A) 31.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBK Karlstad face Assyriska FF in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBK Karlstad a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Assyriska FF 32%, so FBK Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FBK Karlstad and 1.3 for Assyriska FF (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBK Karlstad are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.86 for Assyriska FF.

FBK Karlstad vs Assyriska FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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