Today / Sweden - Ettan - Norra / Piteå vs Gefle IF

Piteå vs Gefle IF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 12:00

Piteå

PPG 0.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gefle IF

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-17.5%0-26.5%0-33.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.9%1-110.5%1-29.2%1-35.4%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.2%2-17.3%2-26.4%2-33.8%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.0%3-13.4%3-23.0%3-31.8%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 37.0% 2.70 -2.0%

Draw 23.1% 27.0% 3.70 -8.7%

Away win 40.6% 46.5% 2.15 -12.7%

Over 2.5 63.6% 65.4% 1.53 -2.7%

Over 3.5 40.2% 42.6% 2.35 -5.5%

BTTS 62.1% 69.0% 1.45 -10.0%

Home O1.5 44.9% 48.8% 2.05 -8.0%

Away O1.5 48.0% 55.6% 1.80 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.1%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 0–2 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Piteå1.4

Gefle IF1.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PITEÅ · PPG 0.29

GEFLE IF · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Piteå (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -2.0%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.7%

Gefle IF (A) 40.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Piteå face Gefle IF in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Piteå a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Gefle IF 41%, so Gefle IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Piteå and 1.8 for Gefle IF (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Piteå are averaging 0.29 points per game versus 0.57 for Gefle IF.

Piteå vs Gefle IF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Norra Predictions