Today / Sweden - Ettan - Norra / Stocksund vs Karlberg

Stocksund vs Karlberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

Stocksund

PPG 0.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Karlberg

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.5% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.5%0-23.6%0-33.3%0-4+4.7%1 1-01.7%1-14.8%1-26.8%1-36.3%1-4+8.8%2 2-01.6%2-14.6%2-26.4%2-36.0%2-4+8.4%3 3-01.0%3-12.9%3-24.1%3-33.8%3-4+5.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.1%4+-23.0%4+-32.8%4+-4+3.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% 40.8% 2.45 -18.4%

Draw 19.8% 26.0% 3.85 -14.3%

Away win 51.9% 43.5% 2.30 +19.4%

Over 2.5 74.5% 74.1% 1.35 +0.6%

Over 3.5 54.0% 54.1% 1.85 -0.1%

BTTS 70.3% 76.9% 1.30 -8.6%

Home O1.5 53.6% 58.8% 1.70 -8.9%

Away O1.5 67.9% 60.6% 1.65 +12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob70.3%

A 52% / xG 1.9-2.8 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 6.8%

#2 2–2 6.4%

#3 1–3 6.3%

#4 2–3 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stocksund1.9

Karlberg2.8

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STOCKSUND · PPG 0.57

KARLBERG · PPG 1.43

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.91 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Stocksund (H) 28.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -18.4%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -14.3%

Karlberg (A) 51.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stocksund face Karlberg in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stocksund a 28% chance, the draw 20% and Karlberg 52%, so Karlberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Stocksund and 2.8 for Karlberg (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stocksund are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.43 for Karlberg. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +54.8%.

Stocksund vs Karlberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Norra Predictions