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Hässleholms IF vs Atvidabergs FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

Hässleholms IF

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atvidabergs FF

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.3%0-24.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.4%1-19.3%1-28.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-18.2%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.8%3-14.9%3-24.2%3-32.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.2%4+-22.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% 42.6% 2.35 +1.5%

Draw 22.3% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Away win 34.5% 40.0% 2.50 -13.8%

Over 2.5 66.8% 65.4% 1.53 +2.2%

Over 3.5 44.8% 42.6% 2.35 +5.3%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 49.4% 54.1% 1.85 -8.6%

Away O1.5 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hässleholms IF1.8

Atvidabergs FF1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HÄSSLEHOLMS IF · PPG 1.43

ATVIDABERGS FF · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hässleholms IF (H) 43.2%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +1.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

Atvidabergs FF (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hässleholms IF face Atvidabergs FF in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hässleholms IF a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Atvidabergs FF 35%, so Hässleholms IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hässleholms IF and 1.7 for Atvidabergs FF (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hässleholms IF are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.50 for Atvidabergs FF. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.3%.

Hässleholms IF vs Atvidabergs FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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