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Tvååker vs Utsikten Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

Tvååker

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Utsikten

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-12.9%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.1%1-17.3%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.5%2-19.0%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.3%3-17.5%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.5%4+-18.3%4+-23.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.7% 73.5% 1.36 -9.3%

Draw 17.3% 21.7% 4.60 -12.3%

Away win 16.0% 15.6% 6.40 +1.4%

Over 2.5 63.6% 67.6% 1.48 -5.9%

Over 3.5 40.6% 45.5% 2.20 -10.7%

BTTS 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Home O1.5 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Away O1.5 20.3% 29.0% 3.45 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 67% / xG 2.5-0.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 3–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 1–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tvååker2.5

Utsikten0.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TVÅÅKER · PPG 1.86

UTSIKTEN · PPG 0.43

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.75 for Home, form 1.86 vs 0.43 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tvååker (H) 66.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -9.3%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -12.3%

Utsikten (A) 16.0%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tvååker face Utsikten in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tvååker a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Utsikten 16%, so Tvååker are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Tvååker and 0.7 for Utsikten (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tvååker are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.43 for Utsikten.

Tvååker vs Utsikten Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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