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Laholm vs Trollhättan Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

Laholm

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Trollhättan

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.8%0-23.8%0-32.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.7%1-19.1%1-27.3%1-33.9%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.5%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.5%3-15.6%3-24.4%3-32.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.1%4+-23.3%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 39.2% 2.55 +25.5%

Draw 22.3% 27.0% 3.70 -10.5%

Away win 28.5% 43.5% 2.30 -20.7%

Over 2.5 64.1% 67.6% 1.48 -5.1%

Over 3.5 42.8% 45.5% 2.20 -5.8%

BTTS 63.5% 70.4% 1.42 -9.8%

Home O1.5 53.6% 51.8% 1.93 +3.5%

Away O1.5 48.0% 55.6% 1.80 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Laholm1.9

Trollhättan1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LAHOLM · PPG 1.17

TROLLHÄTTAN · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Laholm (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +25.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.5%

Trollhättan (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Laholm face Trollhättan in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Laholm a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Trollhättan 28%, so Laholm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Laholm and 1.6 for Trollhättan (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Laholm are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.33 for Trollhättan. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.5%.

Laholm vs Trollhättan Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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