Today / Sweden - Ettan - Södra / Angelholms FF vs AFC Malmo

Angelholms FF vs AFC Malmo Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

Angelholms FF

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

AFC Malmo

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-18.8%0-28.2%0-35.0%0-4+3.5%1 1-05.7%1-110.5%1-29.7%1-36.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.4%2-16.3%2-25.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.4%3-12.5%3-22.3%3-31.4%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.2% 35.1% 2.85 -16.9%

Draw 22.2% 27.4% 3.65 -11.4%

Away win 52.5% 47.6% 2.10 +10.3%

Over 2.5 61.4% 65.4% 1.53 -6.1%

Over 3.5 39.4% 42.6% 2.35 -7.4%

BTTS 60.0% 69.0% 1.45 -13.0%

Home O1.5 32.9% 47.6% 2.10 -30.9%

Away O1.5 50.0% 56.5% 1.77 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob60.0%

A 52% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 0–0 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Angelholms FF1.2

AFC Malmo1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ANGELHOLMS FF · PPG 1.00

AFC MALMO · PPG 2.17

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.65 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Angelholms FF (H) 25.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -16.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.4%

AFC Malmo (A) 52.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Angelholms FF face AFC Malmo in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Angelholms FF a 25% chance, the draw 22% and AFC Malmo 53%, so AFC Malmo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Angelholms FF and 1.8 for AFC Malmo (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Angelholms FF are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.17 for AFC Malmo.

Angelholms FF vs AFC Malmo Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Södra Predictions