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Tuttocuoio vs SantAngelo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Tuttocuoio

PPG 0.20 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

SantAngelo

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Home weakness: POOR (0.20) vs Away POOR (0.67)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-115.6%0-212.2%0-36.4%0-4+3.5%1 1-07.4%1-111.6%1-29.0%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-02.7%2-14.3%2-23.3%2-31.7%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.7%3-11.1%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.6% — — —

Draw 25.4% — — —

Away win 57.0% — — —

Over 2.5 40.4% — — —

Over 3.5 20.1% — — —

BTTS 41.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob41.3%

A 57% / xG 0.7-1.6 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 15.6%

#2 0–2 12.2%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tuttocuoio0.7

SantAngelo1.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TUTTOCUOIO · PPG 0.20

SANTANGELO · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.20) vs Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Tuttocuoio (H) 17.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SantAngelo (A) 57.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tuttocuoio face SantAngelo in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tuttocuoio a 18% chance, the draw 25% and SantAngelo 57%, so SantAngelo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Tuttocuoio and 1.6 for SantAngelo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tuttocuoio are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 0.67 for SantAngelo. This match finished 0-1.

Tuttocuoio vs SantAngelo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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