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Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 12:00

Hangzhou Greentown

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dalian Zhixing

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.6%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.7%1-19.5%1-25.8%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.4%3-16.7%3-24.1%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.5%4+-23.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 53.2% 1.88 +1.9%

Draw 22.2% 26.3% 3.80 -9.4%

Away win 23.6% 29.4% 3.40 -11.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 70.4% 1.42 -9.6%

Over 3.5 41.3% 48.8% 2.05 -15.3%

BTTS 62.5% 72.5% 1.38 -13.8%

Home O1.5 60.7% 63.7% 1.57 -4.7%

Away O1.5 36.9% 46.5% 2.15 -20.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.5%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hangzhou Greentown2.1

Dalian Zhixing1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HANGZHOU GREENTOWN · PPG 1.67

DALIAN ZHIXING · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hangzhou Greentown (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +1.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.4%

Dalian Zhixing (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hangzhou Greentown face Dalian Zhixing in China - Super League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Dalian Zhixing 24%, so Hangzhou Greentown are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.2 for Dalian Zhixing (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.88 for Dalian Zhixing.

Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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