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Sasso Marconi vs Rovato Vertova Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Sasso Marconi

PPG 1.07 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Rovato Vertova

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-115.6%0-27.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.5%1-113.3%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.2%2-15.7%2-22.6%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.8%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 37.0% 2.70 -14.4%

Draw 33.2% 32.3% 3.10 +2.9%

Away win 35.2% 42.9% 2.33 -18.0%

Over 2.5 26.2% 47.6% 2.10 -45.0%

Over 3.5 10.5% — — —

BTTS 34.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob34.6%

D 33% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 0–1 15.6%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 1–1 13.3%

#5 0–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sasso Marconi0.9

Rovato Vertova0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.2% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SASSO MARCONI · PPG 1.07

ROVATO VERTOVA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Sasso Marconi (H) 31.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.4%

Draw 33.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +2.9%

Rovato Vertova (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sasso Marconi face Rovato Vertova in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sasso Marconi a 32% chance, the draw 33% and Rovato Vertova 35%, so Rovato Vertova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sasso Marconi and 0.9 for Rovato Vertova (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sasso Marconi are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.13 for Rovato Vertova. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Sasso Marconi vs Rovato Vertova Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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