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Heming vs Bærum Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 12:00

Heming

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bærum

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.4%0-23.8%0-32.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-04.9%1-18.6%1-27.4%1-34.3%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.8%2-18.3%2-27.2%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.1%3-15.3%3-24.6%3-32.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-14.0%4+-23.5%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 33.6% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 44.8% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 45% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heming1.9

Bærum1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HEMING · PPG 2.17

BÆRUM · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Heming (H) 44.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bærum (A) 33.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Heming face Bærum in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heming a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Bærum 34%, so Heming are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Heming and 1.7 for Bærum (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heming are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.67 for Bærum.

Heming vs Bærum Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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