Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 / Ullern vs Heming

Ullern vs Heming Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 11:00

Ullern

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Heming

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.7%0-26.5%0-35.0%0-4+4.9%1 1-03.5%1-18.0%1-29.1%1-37.0%1-4+6.9%2 2-02.4%2-15.6%2-26.4%2-34.9%2-4+4.8%3 3-01.2%3-12.6%3-23.0%3-32.3%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.0% 34.5% 2.90 -14.8%

Draw 20.7% 23.1% 4.33 -6.2%

Away win 53.3% 54.1% 1.85 -1.4%

Over 2.5 67.0% 78.1% 1.28 -14.2%

Over 3.5 44.5% 58.1% 1.72 -23.5%

BTTS 64.5% 78.1% 1.28 -17.4%

Home O1.5 46.3% 52.4% 1.91 -11.6%

Away O1.5 67.0% 71.4% 1.40 -6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob64.5%

A 53% / xG 1.4-2.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 1–3 7.0%

#4 0–2 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ullern1.4

Heming2.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ULLERN · PPG 0.67

HEMING · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.88 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ullern (H) 26.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.8%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -6.2%

Heming (A) 53.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ullern face Heming in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ullern a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Heming 53%, so Heming are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ullern and 2.3 for Heming (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ullern are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.67 for Heming.

Ullern vs Heming Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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