Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 / Union Carl Berner vs Asker

Union Carl Berner vs Asker Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Regular Season - 13 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 17:00

Union Carl Berner

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Asker

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-18.7%0-28.8%0-36.0%0-4+4.9%1 1-04.8%1-19.7%1-29.9%1-36.7%1-4+5.4%2 2-02.7%2-15.4%2-25.5%2-33.7%2-4+3.0%3 3-01.0%3-12.0%3-22.1%3-31.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.9% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 54.6% — — —

Over 2.5 63.0% — — —

Over 3.5 40.0% — — —

BTTS 60.7% — — —

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 49.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 84%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -4.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob60.7%

A 55% / xG 1.1-2.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 1–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Carl Berner1.1

Asker2.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION CARL BERNER · PPG 1.80

ASKER · PPG 2.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.92 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Union Carl Berner (H) 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Asker (A) 54.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Carl Berner face Asker in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Carl Berner a 24% chance, the draw 21% and Asker 55%, so Asker are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Union Carl Berner and 2.0 for Asker (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Carl Berner are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.67 for Asker.

Union Carl Berner vs Asker Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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