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Konnerud vs Nordstrand Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

Konnerud

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nordstrand

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.0%0-24.3%0-32.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.2%1-19.0%1-27.8%1-34.5%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-18.2%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.9%3-15.0%3-24.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% — — —

Draw 23.0% — — —

Away win 35.6% — — —

Over 2.5 66.9% — — —

Over 3.5 44.8% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 51.0% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 41% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Konnerud1.8

Nordstrand1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KONNERUD · PPG 1.50

NORDSTRAND · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Konnerud (H) 41.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nordstrand (A) 35.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Konnerud face Nordstrand in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Konnerud a 41% chance, the draw 23% and Nordstrand 36%, so Konnerud are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Konnerud and 1.7 for Nordstrand (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Konnerud are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Nordstrand.

Konnerud vs Nordstrand Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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