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Frigg vs Ullern Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 10:30

Frigg

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ullern

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.1%0-21.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-03.7%1-15.8%1-24.5%1-32.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.1%2-18.0%2-26.2%2-33.2%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.7%3-17.3%3-25.7%3-32.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-19.7%4+-27.5%4+-33.9%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 23.5% — — —

Over 2.5 69.3% — — —

Over 3.5 48.3% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 64.0% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 55% / xG 2.7-1.6 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 3–1 7.3%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 2–2 6.2%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frigg2.7

Ullern1.6

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.3% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FRIGG · PPG 1.14

ULLERN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.18 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Frigg (H) 55.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ullern (A) 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Frigg face Ullern in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frigg a 55% chance, the draw 21% and Ullern 24%, so Frigg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Frigg and 1.6 for Ullern (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frigg are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.00 for Ullern.

Frigg vs Ullern Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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