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SF Grei vs Konnerud Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 11:00

SF Grei

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Konnerud

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.8%0-22.0%0-31.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-02.2%1-14.7%1-25.2%1-33.7%1-4+3.4%2 2-02.8%2-16.2%2-26.7%2-34.9%2-4+4.4%3 3-02.5%3-15.4%3-25.9%3-34.2%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-16.6%4+-27.2%4+-35.2%4+-4+4.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% — — —

Draw 20.4% — — —

Away win 32.1% — — —

Over 2.5 75.4% — — —

Over 3.5 53.4% — — —

BTTS 69.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.3% — — —

Away O1.5 54.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.5%

H 48% / xG 2.6-2.2 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.7%

#2 2–1 6.2%

#3 3–2 5.9%

#4 1–1 4.7%

#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SF Grei2.6

Konnerud2.2

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SF GREI · PPG 0.67

KONNERUD · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SF Grei (H) 47.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Konnerud (A) 32.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SF Grei face Konnerud in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SF Grei a 48% chance, the draw 20% and Konnerud 32%, so SF Grei are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for SF Grei and 2.2 for Konnerud (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SF Grei are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.00 for Konnerud.

SF Grei vs Konnerud Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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