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Sangiuliano C. vs Cittadella VM Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Sangiuliano C.

PPG 1.47 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Cittadella VM

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-111.6%0-24.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.0%1-113.2%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.1%2-17.5%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.4%3-12.8%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% — — —

Draw 30.7% — — —

Away win 26.5% — — —

Over 2.5 31.4% — — —

Over 3.5 13.7% — — —

BTTS 38.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob38.2%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 0–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 0–1✓ 11.6%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sangiuliano C.1.1

Cittadella VM0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.4% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANGIULIANO C. · PPG 1.47

CITTADELLA VM · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sangiuliano C. (H) 42.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cittadella VM (A) 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sangiuliano C. face Cittadella VM in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sangiuliano C. a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Cittadella VM 27%, so Sangiuliano C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sangiuliano C. and 0.8 for Cittadella VM (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sangiuliano C. are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.00 for Cittadella VM. This match finished 0-1.

Sangiuliano C. vs Cittadella VM Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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