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Guizhou Zhucheng vs Shenzhen 2028 Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:30

Guizhou Zhucheng

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shenzhen 2028

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.1%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-110.0%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-16.5%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.0%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 21.7% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 20.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 1–1 10.0%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guizhou Zhucheng2.0

Shenzhen 20280.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GUIZHOU ZHUCHENG · PPG 2.67

SHENZHEN 2028 · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guizhou Zhucheng (H) 55.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shenzhen 2028 (A) 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guizhou Zhucheng face Shenzhen 2028 in China - League Two on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guizhou Zhucheng a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Shenzhen 2028 22%, so Guizhou Zhucheng are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Guizhou Zhucheng and 0.9 for Shenzhen 2028 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guizhou Zhucheng are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.44 for Shenzhen 2028.

Guizhou Zhucheng vs Shenzhen 2028 Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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