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Qingdao Red Lions vs BIT Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 18 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 10:30

Qingdao Red Lions

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

BIT

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-18.1%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.3%1-111.7%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.5%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.0%3-14.1%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 20.0% — — —

Over 2.5 43.6% — — —

Over 3.5 23.0% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -17.6%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.3%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.5%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao Red Lions1.4

BIT0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO RED LIONS · PPG 1.00

BIT · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao Red Lions (H) 53.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

BIT (A) 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao Red Lions face BIT in China - League Two on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao Red Lions a 54% chance, the draw 26% and BIT 20%, so Qingdao Red Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Qingdao Red Lions and 0.7 for BIT (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao Red Lions are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.86 for BIT.

Qingdao Red Lions vs BIT Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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