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Guangdong Mingtu vs Chengdu Rongcheng II Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 18 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 11:30

Guangdong Mingtu

PPG 0.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chengdu Rongcheng II

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.8%0-111.3%0-23.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.1%1-112.1%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.7%2-16.5%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.8%3-12.3%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 31.0% — — —

Away win 23.5% — — —

Over 2.5 33.6% — — —

Over 3.5 17.1% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.4%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.8%

#2 1–0 20.1%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 11.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangdong Mingtu1.1

Chengdu Rongcheng II0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGDONG MINGTU · PPG 0.62

CHENGDU RONGCHENG II · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 1.67 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Guangdong Mingtu (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chengdu Rongcheng II (A) 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangdong Mingtu face Chengdu Rongcheng II in China - League Two on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangdong Mingtu a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Chengdu Rongcheng II 24%, so Guangdong Mingtu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Guangdong Mingtu and 0.6 for Chengdu Rongcheng II (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangdong Mingtu are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 0.89 for Chengdu Rongcheng II.

Guangdong Mingtu vs Chengdu Rongcheng II Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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