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Farsta vs Forward Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 11 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 12:00

Farsta

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Forward

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.8%0-23.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.3%1-19.4%1-27.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-19.1%2-26.8%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.0%3-15.9%3-24.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.4%4+-23.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 46.5% 2.15 +7.3%

Draw 22.6% 27.4% 3.65 -10.5%

Away win 27.5% 36.4% 2.75 -14.6%

Over 2.5 64.4% 69.0% 1.45 -6.6%

Over 3.5 42.0% 47.6% 2.10 -11.8%

BTTS 63.4% 72.5% 1.38 -12.5%

Home O1.5 55.0% 58.8% 1.70 -6.5%

Away O1.5 44.6% 51.8% 1.93 -13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.4%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1✓ 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Farsta1.9

Forward1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FARSTA · PPG 3.00

FORWARD · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=49.9%

Win probability 1X2

Farsta (H) 49.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +7.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.5%

Forward (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Farsta face Forward in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Farsta a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Forward 28%, so Farsta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Farsta and 1.5 for Forward (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Farsta are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Forward. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Farsta vs Forward Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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