Today / England - League One / Wigan Athletic vs Rotherham

Wigan Athletic vs Rotherham Prediction— England - League One

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Wigan Athletic

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rotherham

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a clear edge.

+10.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-16.6%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.4%1-111.0%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.2%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.1%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.3% 54.3% 1.84 +10.9%

Draw 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -18.7%

Away win 15.7% 23.1% 4.33 -32.0%

Over 2.5 42.7% 47.6% 2.10 -10.3%

Over 3.5 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -16.1%

BTTS 41.5% 52.6% 1.90 -21.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.5%

H 60% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 2–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wigan Athletic1.7

Rotherham0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WIGAN ATHLETIC · PPG 1.62

ROTHERHAM · PPG 0.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.62) vs P(Home)=60.3%

Win probability 1X2

Wigan Athletic (H) 60.3%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +10.9%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.7%

Rotherham (A) 15.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -32.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wigan Athletic face Rotherham in England - League One on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wigan Athletic a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Rotherham 16%, so Wigan Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Wigan Athletic and 0.7 for Rotherham (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wigan Athletic are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.55 for Rotherham. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.9%.

Wigan Athletic vs Rotherham Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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