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Yverdon Sport vs Étoile Carouge Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 2 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 17:30

Yverdon Sport

PPG 1.79 · HOME

UPCOMING

Étoile Carouge

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.7%0-24.7%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.9%1-111.0%1-27.7%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.0%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.5%3-15.0%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.9%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 57.8% 1.73 -20.4%

Draw 24.7% 27.0% 3.70 -5.2%

Away win 29.3% 25.3% 3.95 +9.4%

Over 2.5 61.2% 65.4% 1.53 -6.4%

Over 3.5 37.6% 43.5% 2.30 -13.5%

BTTS 62.1% 69.0% 1.45 -10.0%

Home O1.5 49.4% 63.7% 1.57 -22.4%

Away O1.5 43.7% 40.0% 2.50 +9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.1%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yverdon Sport1.6

Étoile Carouge1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

YVERDON SPORT · PPG 1.79

ÉTOILE CAROUGE · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Yverdon Sport (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -20.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.2%

Étoile Carouge (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yverdon Sport face Étoile Carouge in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yverdon Sport a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Étoile Carouge 29%, so Yverdon Sport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Yverdon Sport and 1.4 for Étoile Carouge (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.29 for Étoile Carouge. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.3%.

Yverdon Sport vs Étoile Carouge Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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