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Neuchatel Xamax vs Etoile Carouge Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 35 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 18:15

Neuchatel Xamax

PPG 1.65 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Etoile Carouge

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.3%0-24.5%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.4%1-110.6%1-27.6%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-19.0%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.5%3-15.1%3-23.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.2%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 47.6% 2.10 -9.1%

Draw 25.8% 30.3% 3.30 -8.9%

Away win 30.9% 34.5% 2.90 -10.4%

Over 2.5 60.1% 66.7% 1.50 -9.8%

Over 3.5 38.3% 45.5% 2.20 -15.7%

BTTS 58.6% 71.4% 1.40 -18.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.6%

H 43% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neuchatel Xamax1.7

Etoile Carouge1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NEUCHATEL XAMAX · PPG 1.65

ETOILE CAROUGE · PPG 1.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.65) > Away AVERAGE (1.24)

Win probability 1X2

Neuchatel Xamax (H) 43.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -9.1%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.9%

Etoile Carouge (A) 30.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neuchatel Xamax face Etoile Carouge in Switzerland - Challenge League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neuchatel Xamax a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Etoile Carouge 31%, so Neuchatel Xamax are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Neuchatel Xamax and 1.4 for Etoile Carouge (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neuchatel Xamax are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.24 for Etoile Carouge. This match finished 3-0.

Neuchatel Xamax vs Etoile Carouge Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - Challenge League Predictions