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Aarau vs Yverdon Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 36 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:15

Aarau

PPG 2.35 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Yverdon

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.9%0-23.8%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.0%1-19.3%1-27.2%1-33.8%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.6%3-15.6%3-24.4%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.1%4+-23.2%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 67.6% 1.48 -31.9%

Draw 25.5% 23.8% 4.20 +4.3%

Away win 28.5% 18.5% 5.40 +32.3%

Over 2.5 63.3% 70.4% 1.42 -10.1%

Over 3.5 45.6% 48.8% 2.05 -6.5%

BTTS 61.3% 67.6% 1.48 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.3%

H 46% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2✓ 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aarau1.9

Yverdon1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AARAU · PPG 2.35

YVERDON · PPG 1.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

68%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.35) > Away GOOD (1.82)

Win probability 1X2

Aarau (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -31.9%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +4.3%

Yverdon (A) 28.5%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +32.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aarau face Yverdon in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aarau a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Yverdon 28%, so Aarau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Aarau and 1.6 for Yverdon (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aarau are averaging 2.35 points per game versus 1.82 for Yverdon. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Aarau vs Yverdon Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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