Aarau vs Yverdon Prediction & Tips

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Switzerland - Challenge League Regular Season - 36 Friday, May 15, 2026 18:15

Aarau PPG 2.35

2-2 HIT CS4

Yverdon PPG 1.82

Away· +32.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.0%

Odds: 1.48 EV: -31.9%

Draw 25.5%

Odds: 4.20 EV: +4.3%

Away 28.5%

Odds: 5.40 EV: +32.3%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.3% Odds: 1.42 -10.1%

Over 3.5 45.6% Odds: 2.05 -6.5%

BTTS 61.3% Odds: 1.48 -9.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 2-2 ✔

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Aarau

1.91

Yverdon

1.56

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -10.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -10.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+32.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.35) > Away GOOD (1.82)