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Lausanne Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 36 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:15

Lausanne Ouchy

PPG 1.35 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Neuchatel Xamax

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.2%0-23.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.2%1-19.9%1-26.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.3%3-15.9%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.3%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 51.3% 1.95 -1.1%

Draw 24.7% 27.0% 3.70 -5.2%

Away win 24.6% 32.3% 3.10 -14.2%

Over 2.5 60.1% 70.4% 1.42 -14.7%

Over 3.5 41.4% 48.8% 2.05 -15.1%

BTTS 59.1% 73.5% 1.36 -19.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.1%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lausanne Ouchy1.9

Neuchatel Xamax1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 41.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUSANNE OUCHY · PPG 1.35

NEUCHATEL XAMAX · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.35), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Lausanne Ouchy (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -1.1%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.2%

Neuchatel Xamax (A) 24.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lausanne Ouchy face Neuchatel Xamax in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lausanne Ouchy a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Neuchatel Xamax 25%, so Lausanne Ouchy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lausanne Ouchy and 1.4 for Neuchatel Xamax (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lausanne Ouchy are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.06 for Neuchatel Xamax. This match finished 2-1.

Lausanne Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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