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Stade Nyonnais vs Lausanne Ouchy Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 35 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 18:15

Stade Nyonnais

PPG 1.12 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lausanne Ouchy

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.5%0-27.6%0-34.1%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.2%1-111.6%1-29.3%1-35.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.4%2-17.1%2-25.7%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.8%3-12.9%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 31.3% 3.20 +0.8%

Draw 26.4% 28.6% 3.50 -4.6%

Away win 42.1% 51.3% 1.95 -17.9%

Over 2.5 52.3% 65.4% 1.53 -20.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 44.4% 2.25 -28.9%

BTTS 55.4% 69.4% 1.44 -20.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.4%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 9.5%

#4 0–2 7.6%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stade Nyonnais1.2

Lausanne Ouchy1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

STADE NYONNAIS · PPG 1.12

LAUSANNE OUCHY · PPG 1.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.12), Away AVERAGE (1.24)

Win probability 1X2

Stade Nyonnais (H) 31.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +0.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.6%

Lausanne Ouchy (A) 42.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stade Nyonnais face Lausanne Ouchy in Switzerland - Challenge League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stade Nyonnais a 32% chance, the draw 26% and Lausanne Ouchy 42%, so Lausanne Ouchy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Stade Nyonnais and 1.6 for Lausanne Ouchy (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stade Nyonnais are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.24 for Lausanne Ouchy. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Stade Nyonnais vs Lausanne Ouchy Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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