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Etoile Carouge vs Bellinzona Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 36 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:15

Etoile Carouge

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bellinzona

PPG 0.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.7%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.0%1-110.6%1-25.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.8%3-16.2%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 60.6% 1.65 -15.2%

Draw 25.0% 26.0% 3.85 -2.3%

Away win 23.6% 23.8% 4.20 -0.5%

Over 2.5 59.4% 66.7% 1.50 -10.9%

Over 3.5 33.6% 43.5% 2.30 -22.7%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Etoile Carouge1.9

Bellinzona1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ETOILE CAROUGE · PPG 1.06

BELLINZONA · PPG 0.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.06) vs P(Home)=51.4%

Win probability 1X2

Etoile Carouge (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -15.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -2.3%

Bellinzona (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Etoile Carouge face Bellinzona in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Etoile Carouge a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Bellinzona 24%, so Etoile Carouge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Etoile Carouge and 1.1 for Bellinzona (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Etoile Carouge are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.24 for Bellinzona. This match finished 2-2.

Etoile Carouge vs Bellinzona Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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