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Bellinzona vs Wil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 35 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 18:15

Bellinzona

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Wil

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-19.2%0-26.3%0-32.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.9%1-112.2%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.9%2-18.1%2-25.6%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.6%3-13.6%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 34.5% 2.90 +7.9%

Draw 27.0% 32.3% 3.10 -9.8%

Away win 35.8% 44.4% 2.25 -19.4%

Over 2.5 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 36% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–0 6.7%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bellinzona1.3

Wil1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BELLINZONA · PPG 1.06

WIL · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bellinzona (H) 37.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +7.9%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.8%

Wil (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bellinzona face Wil in Switzerland - Challenge League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bellinzona a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Wil 36%, so Bellinzona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bellinzona and 1.4 for Wil (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bellinzona are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.00 for Wil. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 2-4.

Bellinzona vs Wil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - Challenge League Predictions