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ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Bytom Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 2 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 16:00

ŁKS Łódź

PPG 1.79 · HOME

UPCOMING

Polonia Bytom

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.6%0-23.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.0%1-19.1%1-26.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.9%3-15.9%3-24.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.6%4+-23.5%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 60.6% 1.65 -18.5%

Draw 22.3% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Away win 28.3% 22.7% 4.40 +14.7%

Over 2.5 64.1% 59.9% 1.67 +7.0%

Over 3.5 42.8% 38.2% 2.62 +12.1%

BTTS 63.5% 62.5% 1.60 +1.6%

Home O1.5 53.6% 59.9% 1.67 -10.5%

Away O1.5 48.0% 30.8% 3.25 +56.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -3.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ŁKS Łódź2.0

Polonia Bytom1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ŁKS ŁÓDŹ · PPG 1.79

POLONIA BYTOM · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ŁKS Łódź (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -18.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

Polonia Bytom (A) 28.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

ŁKS Łódź face Polonia Bytom in Poland - I Liga on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ŁKS Łódź a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Polonia Bytom 28%, so ŁKS Łódź are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for ŁKS Łódź and 1.5 for Polonia Bytom (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ŁKS Łódź are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.29 for Polonia Bytom. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +56.0%.

ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Bytom Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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