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Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 2 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 16:00

Wisla Plock

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Widzew Łódź

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+20.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-17.1%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.0%1-111.7%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.6%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.4%3-15.3%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 31.7% 3.15 +63.2%

Draw 24.6% 32.8% 3.05 -15.0%

Away win 23.6% 42.6% 2.35 -26.7%

Over 2.5 53.4% 44.4% 2.25 +20.2%

Over 3.5 31.9% 23.8% 4.20 +34.0%

BTTS 52.6% 52.4% 1.91 +0.5%

Home O1.5 49.4% 32.3% 3.10 +53.1%

Away O1.5 28.3% 40.0% 2.50 -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wisla Plock1.6

Widzew Łódź1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WISLA PLOCK · PPG 1.56

WIDZEW ŁÓDŹ · PPG 0.95

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Wisla Plock (H) 51.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +63.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -15.0%

Widzew Łódź (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wisla Plock face Widzew Łódź in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wisla Plock a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Widzew Łódź 24%, so Wisla Plock are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Wisla Plock and 1.0 for Widzew Łódź (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wisla Plock are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.95 for Widzew Łódź. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +74.9%.

Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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