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Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 2 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:30

Motor Lublin

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jagiellonia

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.8%0-25.6%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.8%1-112.3%1-27.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-18.6%2-25.4%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.2%3-14.0%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 35.5% 2.82 +24.1%

Draw 26.0% 28.2% 3.55 -4.6%

Away win 30.0% 43.5% 2.30 -31.0%

Over 2.5 53.4% 58.8% 1.70 -9.2%

Over 3.5 32.2% 35.7% 2.80 -9.8%

BTTS 55.4% 62.5% 1.60 -11.4%

Home O1.5 43.7% 43.5% 2.30 +0.5%

Away O1.5 36.5% 48.8% 2.05 -25.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.4%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.0%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Motor Lublin1.4

Jagiellonia1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MOTOR LUBLIN · PPG 1.44

JAGIELLONIA · PPG 1.52

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Motor Lublin (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV +24.1%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.6%

Jagiellonia (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -31.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Motor Lublin face Jagiellonia in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motor Lublin a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Jagiellonia 30%, so Motor Lublin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Motor Lublin and 1.3 for Jagiellonia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motor Lublin are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.52 for Jagiellonia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.1%.

Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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